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IBO predicted grades

Hi. I would really appreciate it if someone could explain me how the predicted grdes work?? I mean what if there is a large discrepancy between your predicted and your final, supposing my predicted is low and I get very good grades in my finals?? What will the IBO do?? Will they take the predicted or my final. Perhaps its better if I explain my situation.

Our school head has come up with this new thing called a trial exam which we will do towards the end of march. Now the thing is there has been so much pressure on us in terms of completing our IAs and our teachers have been rushing through the syllabus in order to complete it for this so called trial exam. So I have not got enough time to study for these trials. Now the head is threatening us that the marks from these exam will be the marks for our predicted and that if we mess these up and still do well in our finals the IBO will take an average of the two grades.

I, personally don't believe that. I mean I have been getting 7s and 6s since IB1 and supposing I don't do well in these exams how is it possible for them to take those as my predicted. Moreover even if I do mess these exams and do well in my finals, I don't think the IBO would be that naive to just take an average, they would surely do some investigation to find out why the grades differ?? Won't they??

I would really appreciate if anyone could give their views on this matter, because I am really worried that my school is going to screw up my diploma.

thanks

get

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As far as I know, IBO doesn't take predicted grades. I thought it was just for university applications if you unis need them?

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After what I know, your anticipated grades (these are not the same as predicted grades; predicted grades = grades for universities; anticipated = what your teachers believe you can achieve in the actual exam together with your IA grades etc.) in March or so is sent to the IBO. They do not count towards your final grade, but if there is a big disparity between the two sets of grades they might investigate into your case (ie. check procedures to see if you are cheating or so). A large disparity between anticipated grades and final grades can open up for someone receiving the opportunity to explain their case to the IBO so that one can re-do the exams without paying (that is if the final grades are much lower than the anticipated grades).

Edited by dniviE

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I have trial exams at my school as well and as far as I know, this is how it works:

Your teachers will predict your grades depending on how well you do during the course, so usually it isn't just the trial exam that they'll judge you on. The predicted grade will be sent to the IBO and to the universities of your choice and although it does not impact the final level you get, it impacts the percentage mark you receive.

For example, if you are predicted as a level 5 by your teachers but get a level 7 on the final exam (the ones in May), you will still receive the 7 however you will get the lowest percentage in that mark band (the lowest in the level 7 band is 95-96%).

If you are predicted as a level 7 but receive a level 5 on the final exam, you will end up with a level 5 but you will get the highest percentage in that mark band (therefore an 89%).

If you are predicted as a level 6 and receive a level 6 on the final exam, you will get the percentage mark that your teacher originally assigned you; anywhere within the level 6 mark band.

The teachers do this to encourage students to work hard during the school year and not just goof off until exams come around.

Good luck on your trial exams though ^^ Mine are next week :)

Edited by Suntea

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I have trial exams at my school as well and as far as I know, this is how it works:

Your teachers will predict your grades depending on how well you do during the course, so usually it isn't just the trial exam that they'll judge you on. The predicted grade will be sent to the IBO and to the universities of your choice and although it does not impact the final level you get, it impacts the percentage mark you receive.

For example, if you are predicted as a level 5 by your teachers but get a level 7 on the final exam (the ones in May), you will still receive the 7 however you will get the lowest percentage in that mark band (the lowest in the level 7 band is 95-96%).

If you are predicted as a level 7 but receive a level 5 on the final exam, you will end up with a level 5 but you will get the highest percentage in that mark band (therefore an 89%).

If you are predicted as a level 6 and receive a level 6 on the final exam, you will get the percentage mark that your teacher originally assigned you; anywhere within the level 6 mark band.

The teachers do this to encourage students to work hard during the school year and not just goof off until exams come around.

Good luck on your trial exams though ^^ Mine are next week :)

Could you please explain to me these "highest percentage" /"lowest percentage"? It kinda makes no sense to me, what you're saying. What do predicted grades have to do with anything?

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I have trial exams at my school as well and as far as I know, this is how it works:

Your teachers will predict your grades depending on how well you do during the course, so usually it isn't just the trial exam that they'll judge you on. The predicted grade will be sent to the IBO and to the universities of your choice and although it does not impact the final level you get, it impacts the percentage mark you receive.

For example, if you are predicted as a level 5 by your teachers but get a level 7 on the final exam (the ones in May), you will still receive the 7 however you will get the lowest percentage in that mark band (the lowest in the level 7 band is 95-96%).

If you are predicted as a level 7 but receive a level 5 on the final exam, you will end up with a level 5 but you will get the highest percentage in that mark band (therefore an 89%).

If you are predicted as a level 6 and receive a level 6 on the final exam, you will get the percentage mark that your teacher originally assigned you; anywhere within the level 6 mark band.

The teachers do this to encourage students to work hard during the school year and not just goof off until exams come around.

Good luck on your trial exams though ^^ Mine are next week :)

I strongly doubt that this it true. It has to be a scare by your school's teachers that I assume is working pretty well (seeing that you actually believe this). Have actually gotten any confirmation that this is true? ie. have you had any of your second years check and compare their mock results with their final marks?

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I have trial exams at my school as well and as far as I know, this is how it works:

Your teachers will predict your grades depending on how well you do during the course, so usually it isn't just the trial exam that they'll judge you on. The predicted grade will be sent to the IBO and to the universities of your choice and although it does not impact the final level you get, it impacts the percentage mark you receive.

For example, if you are predicted as a level 5 by your teachers but get a level 7 on the final exam (the ones in May), you will still receive the 7 however you will get the lowest percentage in that mark band (the lowest in the level 7 band is 95-96%).

If you are predicted as a level 7 but receive a level 5 on the final exam, you will end up with a level 5 but you will get the highest percentage in that mark band (therefore an 89%).

If you are predicted as a level 6 and receive a level 6 on the final exam, you will get the percentage mark that your teacher originally assigned you; anywhere within the level 6 mark band.

The teachers do this to encourage students to work hard during the school year and not just goof off until exams come around.

Good luck on your trial exams though ^^ Mine are next week :)

Why would IBO do such a silly thing. If one receives a 7, why would IBO bother with giving out lowest boundary percentage?

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You're head is trolling you. Don't believe a thing he/she says. The predicted grades are only to send off to universities(to my knowledge).

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As far as I know, the closest thing I've heard about predicted grades - well really, the grades submitted to the IBO (they could have changed since university applications) - having an impact on your final grades is if you break your leg the day before an exam and you are in surgery, and hence can't make the exam. The IBO will take the grade submitted by your school.

Whether that is true or not, I don't know. Nevertheless, just don't fail the final exams!

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As far as I know, the closest thing I've heard about predicted grades - well really, the grades submitted to the IBO (they could have changed since university applications) - having an impact on your final grades is if you break your leg the day before an exam and you are in surgery, and hence can't make the exam. The IBO will take the grade submitted by your school.

Whether that is true or not, I don't know. Nevertheless, just don't fail the final exams!

That's not true either. Why would the IBO accept grades that are based on your predicteds/mocks? For example, in my school there is quite a difference (for some students) between their predicted and actual IB grades. In addition mocks are not always based upon the actual exams. In my school for example we only had some papers for the exams (ie. only Paper 1 and 2 in Physics), which wouldn't make sense to figure out your final grade from that. Also, the only thing that would happen if you fall ill in any serious way is that your school (and maybe the IBO) has to offer you an alternative way to proceed with your IB exams. That could be for example to delay them to the next examination session (seriously, this is true; happened to someone I know that had a medical condition).

Edited by dniviE

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As far as I know, the closest thing I've heard about predicted grades - well really, the grades submitted to the IBO (they could have changed since university applications) - having an impact on your final grades is if you break your leg the day before an exam and you are in surgery, and hence can't make the exam. The IBO will take the grade submitted by your school.

Whether that is true or not, I don't know. Nevertheless, just don't fail the final exams!

That's not true either. Why would the IBO accept grades that are based on your predicteds/mocks? For example, in my school there is quite a difference (for some students) between their predicted and actual IB grades. In addition mocks are not always based upon the actual exams. In my school for example we only had some papers for the exams (ie. only Paper 1 and 2 in Physics), which wouldn't make sense to figure out your final grade from that. Also, the only thing that would happen if you fall ill in any serious way is that your school (and maybe the IBO) has to offer you an alternative way to proceed with your IB exams. That could be for example to delay them to the next examination session (seriously, this is true; happened to someone I know that had a medical condition).

Honestly, I have no idea. It's just something I heard secondhand from a teacher. Regardless, studying is needed, whether it be for internal exams or the final ones. Although the latter isn't really an option.

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Yeah Suntea's thing is a scare story - I think! I've certainly never heard of that.

I don't know about missing the exams (I actually think that even if you have surgery that day, the IBO would make you re-sit the exam) but our IB Coordinator sent the chemistry coursework for the year before mine to Bolivia or something by mistake, instead of wherever it was meant to go. The IB Coordinator claimed he'd sent it and it had got lost in the post and so the IBO were forced to use the school's predicted grades for coursework for everybody doing chemistry in the year above me. Then 4 months of sitting in a Bolivian post office later, the papers eventually got returned to my school and it was very embarrassing... still not enough to get the IBC fired, though, the level of incompetence was high but still not high enough :P Also it meant our chemistry teachers didn't realise how bad they were at predicting coursework grades and all the predicted 7's for my year turned out to be 4's, so weirdly it worked out in the year above's favour that the Bolivian papers went temporarily missing.

Anyway, that's coursework only, but that's the only time I've ever heard of predicted grades being used formally.

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I meant the percentage grade for your non-IB grade. I live in Ontario so my IB grade could be a level 6 but on my Ontario report card and official transcript it would give me a percentage mark. I'm sorry if I confused anyone, I was just answering to the extent of my knowledge.

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I meant the percentage grade for your non-IB grade. I live in Ontario so my IB grade could be a level 6 but on my Ontario report card and official transcript it would give me a percentage mark. I'm sorry if I confused anyone, I was just answering to the extent of my knowledge.

It's best to mention that you're talking about something region-specific. ;) Otherwise it leads to confusion as the OP was inquiring about the general IB rules, and they're from Tanzania. ;)

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Let me clear this up.

Predicted grades are used for the following reasons:

1. To give the universities which you are applying to an idea of what you might get on your finals. (Through UCAS for instance)

2. [Optional] To allow the school to make analysis of students’ academic standings and compare the results from previous years.

3. The predicted grades will be taken into account by the IBO in case some of your final exam papers are lost by mail. If your exams are lost, your grade of that subject will be based on your internal assessments, the other final exam papers you did for that subject, AND what the actual teacher thinks you would have got, meaning the predicted grades.

/IB-Adam

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Let me clear this up.

Predicted grades are used for the following reasons:

1. To give the universities which you are applying to an idea of what you might get on your finals. (Through UCAS for instance)

2. [Optional] To allow the school to make analysis of students’ academic standings and compare the results from previous years.

3. The predicted grades will be taken into account by the IBO in case some of your final exam papers are lost by mail. If your exams are lost, your grade of that subject will be based on your internal assessments, the other final exam papers you did for that subject, AND what the actual teacher thinks you would have got, meaning the predicted grades.

/IB-Adam

Source, please? I can't really believe the IBO would do such a thing.

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Let me clear this up.

Predicted grades are used for the following reasons:

1. To give the universities which you are applying to an idea of what you might get on your finals. (Through UCAS for instance)

2. [Optional] To allow the school to make analysis of students’ academic standings and compare the results from previous years.

3. The predicted grades will be taken into account by the IBO in case some of your final exam papers are lost by mail. If your exams are lost, your grade of that subject will be based on your internal assessments, the other final exam papers you did for that subject, AND what the actual teacher thinks you would have got, meaning the predicted grades.

/IB-Adam

Source, please? I can't really believe the IBO would do such a thing.

Sources: 1. My IB-coordinator, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

2. My economics teacher, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

3. My math teacher, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

Yes, many of our teachers are examiners as well.

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With regards to what IB-Adam has mentioned, our IB co-ordinator and school have said that this is how predicted grades are used. They also used the example about papers getting lost, but mentioned that if you got seriously sick predicted grades may also be used.

However, it seems rare to use predicted grades instead of actual examination grades - it seems to be at the prerogative of the IBO to determine where it is appropriate under 'special conditions' to revise final grades on the basis of predicted grades. In the sources below, they also mention how predicted grades are used 'exclusively' to set 'grade boundaries', but this doesn't seem to make sense given that final grades are there to set grade boundaries.

In terms of official IBO sources confirming this, they seem to be a bit vague. But here are some documents.

http://www.ibo.org/communications/publications/documents/e_uni_recognition_brochure_07.PDF

http://ibpublishing.ibo.org/xwiki/bin/view/Handbook/A10.6+Predicted+grades

In terms of the OP's query (it's gotten a bit off-track), your final IB mark should not be affected by predicted grades unless there are large discrepancies or other special conditions. But, depending on your uni application system, they might take into account predicted grades in terms of giving offers. There is so much variance in how predicted grades are used in schools and different countries - so it is quite different depending on your own specific situation.

But to be honest, I myself am a bit confused given the confusion and contradictions that seem to abound regarding predicted grades. If anyone could offer more insight into the subject by interpreting the IB sources, I think that would be appreciated by many people. :)

Edited by flinquinnster

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With regards to what IB-Adam has mentioned, our IB co-ordinator and school have said that this is how predicted grades are used. They also used the example about papers getting lost, but mentioned that if you got seriously sick predicted grades may also be used.

However, it seems rare to use predicted grades instead of actual examination grades - it seems to be at the prerogative of the IBO to determine where it is appropriate under 'special conditions' to revise final grades on the basis of predicted grades. In the sources below, they also mention how predicted grades are used 'exclusively' to set 'grade boundaries', but this doesn't seem to make sense given that final grades are there to set grade boundaries.

In terms of official IBO sources confirming this, they seem to be a bit vague. But here are some documents.

http://www.ibo.org/communications/publications/documents/e_uni_recognition_brochure_07.PDF

http://ibpublishing.ibo.org/xwiki/bin/view/Handbook/A10.6+Predicted+grades

In terms of the OP's query (it's gotten a bit off-track), your final IB mark should not be affected by predicted grades unless there are large discrepancies or other special conditions. But, depending on your uni application system, they might take into account predicted grades in terms of giving offers. There is so much variance in how predicted grades are used in schools and different countries - so it is quite different depending on your own specific situation.

But to be honest, I myself am a bit confused given the confusion and contradictions that seem to abound regarding predicted grades. If anyone could offer more insight into the subject by interpreting the IB sources, I think that would be appreciated by many people. :)

"Predicted grades are for the exclusive use of grade award meetings when considering a subject’s grade distributions and the performance of individual candidates. A check on the appropriateness of results is made by comparing awarded grades with predicted grades. If there are significant discrepancies, further reviews may be conducted. Predicted grades are not used for candidates affected by adverse circumstances, including candidates with incomplete assessment for one or more components."

The underlined parts are basically saying that predicted grades are not used for anything else than grade awards meetings and that they are not used for students that suffer "adverse circumstances" (this means preventing success). To me it sounds like the predicted grades cannot be used as a replacement for sitting the exams if the "candidates [are] affected by adverse circumstances".

Here is also a link to what the IBO considers as "adverse circumstances": http://ibpublishing.ibo.org/xwiki/bin/view/Handbook/A9.2+Adverse+circumstances

According to the General regulations: Diploma Programme, adverse or unforeseen circumstances are defined as those beyond the control of the candidate that might be detrimental to his or her performance, including temporary illness or injury, severe stress, exceptionally difficult family circumstances, bereavement, or events that may threaten the health or safety of a candidate. Adverse circumstances may also include an event that affects the whole school community, such as civil unrest or a natural disaster.

Edited by dniviE

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Let me clear this up.

Predicted grades are used for the following reasons:

1. To give the universities which you are applying to an idea of what you might get on your finals. (Through UCAS for instance)

2. [Optional] To allow the school to make analysis of students’ academic standings and compare the results from previous years.

3. The predicted grades will be taken into account by the IBO in case some of your final exam papers are lost by mail. If your exams are lost, your grade of that subject will be based on your internal assessments, the other final exam papers you did for that subject, AND what the actual teacher thinks you would have got, meaning the predicted grades.

/IB-Adam

Source, please? I can't really believe the IBO would do such a thing.

Sources: 1. My IB-coordinator, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

2. My economics teacher, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

3. My math teacher, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

Yes, many of our teachers are examiners as well.

As for the third condition, I think this has happened to Sandwich's school. (I don't remember which post that was from, unfortunately. It was a post here on IBS.)

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"Predicted grades are for the exclusive use of grade award meetings when considering a subject’s grade distributions and the performance of individual candidates. A check on the appropriateness of results is made by comparing awarded grades with predicted grades. If there are significant discrepancies, further reviews may be conducted. Predicted grades are not used for candidates affected by adverse circumstances, including candidates with incomplete assessment for one or more components."

The underlined parts are basically saying that predicted grades are not used for anything else than grade awards meetings and that they are not used for students that suffer "adverse circumstances" (this means preventing success). To me it sounds like the predicted grades cannot be used as a replacement for sitting the exams if the "candidates [are] affected by adverse circumstances".


"Predicted grades are for the exclusive use of grade award meetings when considering a subject’s grade distributions and the performance of individual candidates. A check on the appropriateness of results is made by comparing awarded grades with predicted grades. If there are significant discrepancies, further reviews may be conducted. Predicted grades are not used for candidates affected by adverse circumstances, including candidates with incomplete assessment for one or more components."

The underlined parts are basically saying that predicted grades are not used for anything else than grade awards meetings and that they are not used for students that suffer "adverse circumstances" (this means preventing success). To me it sounds like the predicted grades cannot be used as a replacement for sitting the exams if the "candidates [are] affected by adverse circumstances".

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Of course predicted grades can not act as a replacement. My third point was about students who have already done all the exams and are under the unfortunate condition that some of their papers have been lost in the mail. This is not relevant at all to the student's health condition. This is between the school and the IBO.

I never said that they will give you a grade solely based on your predicted grades. Your internal assessments, and the other papers for that subject which you have done will also be taken account.

I don't think this is something one should worry so much about - just study for your finals. If your papers get lost, you will most likely not even be told about it.

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Let me clear this up.

Predicted grades are used for the following reasons:

1. To give the universities which you are applying to an idea of what you might get on your finals. (Through UCAS for instance)

2. [Optional] To allow the school to make analysis of students’ academic standings and compare the results from previous years.

3. The predicted grades will be taken into account by the IBO in case some of your final exam papers are lost by mail. If your exams are lost, your grade of that subject will be based on your internal assessments, the other final exam papers you did for that subject, AND what the actual teacher thinks you would have got, meaning the predicted grades.

/IB-Adam

Source, please? I can't really believe the IBO would do such a thing.

Sources: 1. My IB-coordinator, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

2. My economics teacher, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

3. My math teacher, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

Yes, many of our teachers are examiners as well.

As for the third condition, I think this has happened to Sandwich's school. (I don't remember which post that was from, unfortunately. It was a post here on IBS.)

Yep, although I should stress it didn't happen for final examination papers, but for the Chemistry IA folders, so I can't account for what they'd do with final exam papers.

I'm not sure how relevant it would be nowadays though - my understanding is that they've started posting a lot less (I think they realised they were being massive hypocrites telling us to be responsible world citizens and then casually running up thousands of international airmiles posting our exams around). Exam papers at least I think are scanned in, so they'd be very hard to lose. I'm not sure if they still post IAs. And obviously anything electronic can't be lost, such as TOK essay submissions which I believe are now done online.

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Let me clear this up.

Predicted grades are used for the following reasons:

1. To give the universities which you are applying to an idea of what you might get on your finals. (Through UCAS for instance)

2. [Optional] To allow the school to make analysis of students’ academic standings and compare the results from previous years.

3. The predicted grades will be taken into account by the IBO in case some of your final exam papers are lost by mail. If your exams are lost, your grade of that subject will be based on your internal assessments, the other final exam papers you did for that subject, AND what the actual teacher thinks you would have got, meaning the predicted grades.

/IB-Adam

Source, please? I can't really believe the IBO would do such a thing.

Sources: 1. My IB-coordinator, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

2. My economics teacher, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

3. My math teacher, experienced teacher and IB examiner.

Yes, many of our teachers are examiners as well.

As for the third condition, I think this has happened to Sandwich's school. (I don't remember which post that was from, unfortunately. It was a post here on IBS.)

Yep, although I should stress it didn't happen for final examination papers, but for the Chemistry IA folders, so I can't account for what they'd do with final exam papers.

I'm not sure how relevant it would be nowadays though - my understanding is that they've started posting a lot less (I think they realised they were being massive hypocrites telling us to be responsible world citizens and then casually running up thousands of international airmiles posting our exams around). Exam papers at least I think are scanned in, so they'd be very hard to lose. I'm not sure if they still post IAs. And obviously anything electronic can't be lost, such as TOK essay submissions which I believe are now done online.

TOK essays are uploaded online, and I believe that so will the IAs and EE since 2014 (not sure about the IAs). This year, IAs are still mailed. Exam papers, I think, are scanned, but I've no evidence to support my words. ;)

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