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IA Math IA help?

I've decided to model infectious diseases and my teacher said it should be doable if I could determine my parameters. However I am very confused as to how I should go on with this.

Am I supposed to use an already available equation? Or should I make my own? How do I make this mathematical enough? I can't just plug in numbers and turn it into a graph...

I'm actually not even sure about my focus.

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Well you definitely need to narrow parameters and determine a focus, as your teacher said. First off, pick a certain disease, as all diseases spread at different rates. For instance, you could take a disease like influenza (flu) and model how it multiplies and spread over the course of 1 day, 1 week, etc. in a certain area. You would have to research the actual numbers, but here are some made-up numbers just to provide an example:

Let's say 1,000 people that go out in public in one day in London have the flu, and the chance of them spreading it to at least 1 other person is about 30%. This would lead us to an exponential function that looked something like:

1000(1.30)^X

1 Day: 1300 infected people

2 Days: 1690 infected people

3 Days: 2197 infected people

etc.

Hope this helps and good luck!