The Ukrainian Crisis: Dangerous?

[Guest]

Hey! Recently I was having a short discussion on the ongoing Ukrainian Crisis. The impasse of diplomatic discussions seem to have provoked a flurry of speculations. I guess we got a bit carried away, and our discussion ended with the possibilty of a World War, with involvement of nuclear warfare. (Somehow North Korea wriggled it way in.)

I wanted to know what are are your speculations? Will the issue resolve peacefully? Or a war might ensue?

(P.S. I hope I'm not offending anyone. This is just out of pure curiosity.)

[XeoKnight]

I really, really doubt WWIII will occur, aka nuclear war. The west does not want Ukraine that bad, they would rather give ALL of Ukraine to Russia than have a war with them. I think Crimea is the extent to which something will happen, and here I am not sure; my guess is that the Crimeans will vote to join Russia, but Kiev will refuse to acknoledge it and so on. The West cannot do much; Europe is dependant on Russia's gas, and while people say it isn't, fact is, we are very much dependant on them. If they cut us off, we won't have too much of a problem now as we are approaching Summer (Poland probably will, so will a few other cold countries) but we have had a mild winter, unlike America. That said, we still wouldn't risk lose this supply. I know Hague said we can get this gas from the U.S. instead, but I find this highly unlikely.

Russia just stands too much to lose should Crimea stay in the Ukraine and the Ukraine join Nato & EU. I heard that the EU didn't even want Ukraine particularly badly, but in that respect I know far too little and will restrain myself from saying too much. But Russia's military presence in the Sea (Was it black or meditteranean? idk which one Crimea is at) is something that they really need strategically. Did I mention that the Ukraine has tonnes of gas fields? A lot of incentives to control Ukraine. I'm pretty sure that people will keep arguing about Crimea, but I don't think it will escalate to full blown world war. I wouldn't rule out a civil war, though. Best case scenario, the situation over there reverts back to how it was before Yanukovych was there and the Crimeans continue to largely ignore Kiev, they were basically autonomous already with a parliament and all. Worst case scenario, civil war between the Ukrainians in the north-west and west, possibly large parts of the East and North, funded by the West and Kiev, against Crimea and surrounding regions, which are funded and supported by 'pro russian militants' (aka Russia, they're not fooling anyone).

[Guest]

Pretty true I guess. And well Russia has always been pretty adamant about having 'influence' in the Black Sea.

But the funny little fact is that President Putin denies any illegality associated with the "pro-Russian militants" taking over Crimea. (Hear him tell Merkel that we aren't breaking any international law.) I wonder what the Nobel Prize Association has to say about that. (Ouch.)

[Maks123456]

Ukraine is a falsely set up country. Khrushchev, born near the Ukrainian border, gifted the Crimea to the Ukrainians when he came to power after Stalin's death. Much of the current Ukraine was composed in a similar way. So, essentially, Crimea belonged to the Russians and it is only natural to assume that, after the future referendum, the Crimeans are going to vote for becoming part of Russia.

The entire country's problem is that it is split into two parts - one pro Russian and one pro-US/West. This phenomenon is not uncommon in the ex-Soviet Eastern Bloc - the younger population, who knows nothing of those days, doesn't like them; the older population, despite the fact that it does not understand the old days, likes them. In Ukraine this spiraled out of the usual talks. There are a lot of people who think that Ukraine may be facing a Civil War. I do not fully agree. I think those who are pro-Russian will join the Russians, while the rest will split apart to "join" the West.