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What do the variables represent in Poisson Dirstribution


Andrei.Pavicic

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  • x: The actual number of successes that occur in a specified region.

λ represents the average number of successes that occur in the region

Im wondering what each variable would represent in terms of average goals in a soccer match. I'm predicting the score of a match but I'm unsure what each variable would represent. Î» would be the average goals in a season, but would x simplybe the number of total goals scored?

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x = number of goals actually scored (varying by games) in a half or entire match.
λ = mean number of goals scored in a half or entire match
Note lambda and x must both relate to same time interval, whether they be halves or entire games.

P(X = x), or p(x) would thus determine the probability that the team scores x number of goals, given the mean of Î» (per game).
If you know the average goals scored per game, tallied in some season, then that's lambda. If you only know the total number of goals then you have to divide by total number of games to get lambda. 

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