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MATH IA PROBABILITY OF HILARY CLINTON'S VICTORY


Dinara

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hi all!)

So, I am thinking of writing an ia about probability of either US presidential candidates' victory. (I know that results are going to be out in the next couple of hours, though). I do not know how to start...can you suggest me the methodology or similar ias , books, topics, links that would help me? Please!) Goood luck, IB fellows!)

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I am not quite sure how you'd be able to quantify certain aspects in order to include these into your uncertainty. I was told a good IA would have quantitative rather than quantitative data. The idea seems rather interesting, I have to say, but you have to remember that you need to be able to justify your calculations throughout the expiration. This seems a bit risky in this instance. 

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This is a sophisticated topic that requires digging into the numbers, polls, demographics and requires a lot of knowledge of political science in order to score well. If you have a lot of knowledge and time then go for it. Otherwise, don't.

Choose something safer and simpler like modelling populations with exponential functions or modelling a path of a ball with quadratic functions.

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