Opinion on Predicted Scores

[Tony Stark]

So, basically, I'm predicted 38/38. I don't believe I'll get close; our school has a trend of predicting ~5 points above the actual score. Personally, I'd be tempted to let it be, however I've heard that universities often look at predicted 45s with an extra grain of salt. So, should I ask my IBC to drop the predicted score a bit? If I did so, I'd probably ask him to drop my Chem score one (as it's irrelevant to the degree) and maybe my French score one as well; they're both the subjects I see myself as most likely to lose marks at. Then again, I do have a proven academic track record, with a 7 in anticipated History SL and awards in independent external examinations. Thoughts?

I'm planning to apply to Oxford, LSE, UCL, Durham and Warwick for Law, if that's relevant.

[Sandwich]

38/38 = 42/42?

To be honest if you've been scoring 7s in all your subjects then I'd go for 7s. Tell them to predict you just 2 points for CAS or something if you're worried about being seen with 45 points. To be honest I'd go with the highest grades you can get, speculating that they take 45s with a pinch of salt is less substantial than the fact that they DO want the best grades they can get. People do actually get 45s and if you have the marks so far to back up 7s then there's nothing to lose by going for it. Oxford are likely to give you a high point total to aim for (40+, usually 41 or 42 max although I have heard of a 43) and may well ask for 7,7,7 at HL regardless of which they are, so I definitely wouldn't ask for a prediction of a 6 in Chemistry. The other Universities actually publish their minimum grade requirements, as a rule, and will offer you that almost without exception.

I think that the whole 45 thing is a bit of a rumour. They probably do take it with a pinch of salt and don't necessarily expect you to go on to get 45 but they'll ask the same of you with a 45 point prediction as they would if you were predicted 43 or 44, it's not like they're going to bin your application when you're predicted full marks or ask for higher grades off you. The only exception would be of course if you really don't think you can get in the ball-park of 45 and actually it has a bearing on your application such that you're claiming to have higher marks than you're actually capable of and shouldn't be considered by these Universities (which seems unlikely to me). Also, if 45 is set there as a target, who knows. Sometimes the higher you aim, the higher you reach. And your grades currently seem decent, so go for it. I know several people who've gone on to get 45s so it's not like an impossible dream or anything, if you put the effort in and are smart enough. Your life will definitely be made a lot easier by having had the opportunity to get rid of History a year early. At the end of the day it's often density of exams in that 2 week period which finishes people off and pulls their point total down, so you'll definitely have an advantage over many others.

Good luck though

[AdamDyk]

38/38 = 42/42?

To be honest if you've been scoring 7s in all your subjects then I'd go for 7s. Tell them to predict you just 2 points for CAS or something if you're worried about being seen with 45 points.

I think you meant EE/TOK instead of CAS?

[Tony Stark]

38/38 = 42/42?

To be honest if you've been scoring 7s in all your subjects then I'd go for 7s. Tell them to predict you just 2 points for CAS or something if you're worried about being seen with 45 points. To be honest I'd go with the highest grades you can get, speculating that they take 45s with a pinch of salt is less substantial than the fact that they DO want the best grades they can get. People do actually get 45s and if you have the marks so far to back up 7s then there's nothing to lose by going for it. Oxford are likely to give you a high point total to aim for (40+, usually 41 or 42 max although I have heard of a 43) and may well ask for 7,7,7 at HL regardless of which they are, so I definitely wouldn't ask for a prediction of a 6 in Chemistry. The other Universities actually publish their minimum grade requirements, as a rule, and will offer you that almost without exception.

I think that the whole 45 thing is a bit of a rumour. They probably do take it with a pinch of salt and don't necessarily expect you to go on to get 45 but they'll ask the same of you with a 45 point prediction as they would if you were predicted 43 or 44, it's not like they're going to bin your application when you're predicted full marks or ask for higher grades off you. The only exception would be of course if you really don't think you can get in the ball-park of 45 and actually it has a bearing on your application such that you're claiming to have higher marks than you're actually capable of and shouldn't be considered by these Universities (which seems unlikely to me). Also, if 45 is set there as a target, who knows. Sometimes the higher you aim, the higher you reach. And your grades currently seem decent, so go for it. I know several people who've gone on to get 45s so it's not like an impossible dream or anything, if you put the effort in and are smart enough. Your life will definitely be made a lot easier by having had the opportunity to get rid of History a year early. At the end of the day it's often density of exams in that 2 week period which finishes people off and pulls their point total down, so you'll definitely have an advantage over many others.

Good luck though

Nah, I have (informal) predictions for EE/ToK of 3 total (my ToK teacher is my A1 EE supervisor). 38/38 refers to the fact that I already have a subject finished, so there's only 38 available points for me this year. It's not that I feel overwhelmed by any IB subject, and I don't really find 7s difficult, but rather that my school has a history of neglecting to mention something crucial etc; and also in Group 4 subjects in particular we can get moderated to such an extent that it brings down entire grades for the subject - For example, in Biology 2010 IAs got moderated down 14 points out of 48.

Yeah, I have been looking at TSR's Oxford applicants page and have seen there that there are a couple of predicted 45s who got interviews and offers, and it would make sense that the internet exaggerates the rumours. LNAT results might serve to back up the predictions, too - I scored 36 and 29 respectively on the samples on their website.

Anyways, it's still 4-5 months until applications; who knows, I might crash and burn somewhere in between and bring my predicteds down.

And I thought their standard offer for Law was 39-40? That's what it said on their site, at least.

[Sandwich]

Nah, I have (informal) predictions for EE/ToK of 3 total (my ToK teacher is my A1 EE supervisor). 38/38 refers to the fact that I already have a subject finished, so there's only 38 available points for me this year. It's not that I feel overwhelmed by any IB subject, and I don't really find 7s difficult, but rather that my school has a history of neglecting to mention something crucial etc; and also in Group 4 subjects in particular we can get moderated to such an extent that it brings down entire grades for the subject - For example, in Biology 2010 IAs got moderated down 14 points out of 48.

Yeah, I have been looking at TSR's Oxford applicants page and have seen there that there are a couple of predicted 45s who got interviews and offers, and it would make sense that the internet exaggerates the rumours. LNAT results might serve to back up the predictions, too - I scored 36 and 29 respectively on the samples on their website.

Anyways, it's still 4-5 months until applications; who knows, I might crash and burn somewhere in between and bring my predicteds down.

And I thought their standard offer for Law was 39-40? That's what it said on their site, at least.

Fair enough, I just meant that if you wanted to 'flaw' your application somewhere then it would make sense to do it on your bonus points (which Universities don't care about quite as much because they don't really reflect your academic potential) than on your subject points. I would still go with the highest set of predictions you can, however, and not try and bring it down from 45. As for the LNAT scores, they don't really consider them and your subjects together but as two different factors given that they test different abilities in many ways - but if your LNAT is good then obviously it'll help make your application better. I strongly doubt they'd think your predictions were fabricated - given that your teachers do them and not you! And it's not in your teacher's interests to predict incorrectly as it affects their reputation/job.

As for the standard offer for Law, I have no idea, I've never looked into it. I just meant that they often give a 40+ point score to aim for and seem to reserve the right to give out atypical offers to some people a little more often than other Universities which very rarely deviate from their published offers.

[Tony Stark]

Nah, I have (informal) predictions for EE/ToK of 3 total (my ToK teacher is my A1 EE supervisor). 38/38 refers to the fact that I already have a subject finished, so there's only 38 available points for me this year. It's not that I feel overwhelmed by any IB subject, and I don't really find 7s difficult, but rather that my school has a history of neglecting to mention something crucial etc; and also in Group 4 subjects in particular we can get moderated to such an extent that it brings down entire grades for the subject - For example, in Biology 2010 IAs got moderated down 14 points out of 48.

Yeah, I have been looking at TSR's Oxford applicants page and have seen there that there are a couple of predicted 45s who got interviews and offers, and it would make sense that the internet exaggerates the rumours. LNAT results might serve to back up the predictions, too - I scored 36 and 29 respectively on the samples on their website.

Anyways, it's still 4-5 months until applications; who knows, I might crash and burn somewhere in between and bring my predicteds down.

And I thought their standard offer for Law was 39-40? That's what it said on their site, at least.

Fair enough, I just meant that if you wanted to 'flaw' your application somewhere then it would make sense to do it on your bonus points (which Universities don't care about quite as much because they don't really reflect your academic potential) than on your subject points. I would still go with the highest set of predictions you can, however, and not try and bring it down from 45. As for the LNAT scores, they don't really consider them and your subjects together but as two different factors given that they test different abilities in many ways - but if your LNAT is good then obviously it'll help make your application better. I strongly doubt they'd think your predictions were fabricated - given that your teachers do them and not you! And it's not in your teacher's interests to predict incorrectly as it affects their reputation/job.

As for the standard offer for Law, I have no idea, I've never looked into it. I just meant that they often give a 40+ point score to aim for and seem to reserve the right to give out atypical offers to some people a little more often than other Universities which very rarely deviate from their published offers.

Ah, but that's the thing: this year will be the first year our school actually has a contingent on UCAS applicants (IB is new here, and it's difficult to go overseas with VCE) under this new careers counselor and in the last decade, and there's only 3 of us out of a Year 12 cohort of nearly 500. So, our applications are being done independently, and not through the school. I would imagine this could bring more scrutiny. And many of our teachers do inflate grades, it seems our entire IB program is based on lying to students to make them feel better about themselves and not drop out of the program.

Interesting, I would have thought that as ToK assesses your ability to think and the EE supposedly reflects a basic uni essay, they would be inclined to take those into account; also that as I don't imagine many A-level students applying for Law would take Chemistry it's not really a subject they'd look at.

Hmmm, from what I heard Oxford generally offered around 38-40, while Cambridge went 40-43. Nonetheless, provided I don't bomb anything, I doubt I'll score below 42 *touches wood*; the only subjects that have ever given me trouble in the slightest were French last year (our teacher was on maternity leave for a bit over half the year) and Chemistry throughout. In retrospect I was more unsure about History last year than I am about any subject this year. Hell, I doubt my IBC would even lower my predicteds beyond 44 or maybe 43, if at all.

[Sandwich]

Interesting, I would have thought that as ToK assesses your ability to think and the EE supposedly reflects a basic uni essay, they would be inclined to take those into account; also that as I don't imagine many A-level students applying for Law would take Chemistry it's not really a subject they'd look at.

To be frank, UK Unis don't necessarily understand the IB all that well. To generalise massively, they consider your HL subjects = A Levels and your SL subjects = padding, TOK = no idea what the hell this is about and EE = same as TOK. And just like as for A Levels, they ask you for things like AAA, AAB etc. so they do the same for your HLs often - 777, 776, 766 etc.

They don't really care what they're in, provided they contain your required subjects. Rather like they don't really care what an A-Level applicants 3rd A Level is in (depending on subject of course), but will still require a particular grade in it.

I wouldn't say TOK teaches thinking as much as BS to the max but yeah haha

[ChocolateDrop]

UK universities generally don't worry about grade inflation because if you don't meet their offer they reserve the right to not accept you, whereas from what I've researched about American Universities their offers are kind of unconditional (not quite) so grade inflation is a big issue hence the standardised SAT tests. The LNAT might be used a bit like SATs if there is such a huge difference in your LNAT reflected abilities and IB reflected abilities they might question. UK Uni's know what the EE as they equate it to generally the same as the A level EPQ/ mini dissertation.

[Emmi]

UK universities generally don't worry about grade inflation because if you don't meet their offer they reserve the right to not accept you, whereas from what I've researched about American Universities their offers are kind of unconditional (not quite) so grade inflation is a big issue hence the standardised SAT tests. The LNAT might be used a bit like SATs if there is such a huge difference in your LNAT reflected abilities and IB reflected abilities they might question. UK Uni's know what the EE as they equate it to generally the same as the A level EPQ/ mini dissertation.

LOL American unis are pretty much unconditional. The only condition most give is to finish high school/college/secondary school and not to go from like an A/B average to a C/D average. And SATs are not the only way American unis determine your academic ability either.

[ChocolateDrop]

It's not really unconditional if they reserve the right to take your place away or you have to satisfy certain conditions i.e finishing high school, is it? Unconditional means your in no matter what, as you are.

I did not say SATs are the only way American Universities asses academic ability, I know there's other things that come into play such as Extra curriculars/ essay/resume etc but I was just giving an example how 'Standardised admissions tests such as the SAT and ACT are used as a common denominator in student applications and allow universities to compare applicants who may come from a variety of different educational backgrounds' and different grading systems. I was comparing how the LNAT can possibly be used in a similar way.

[TykeDragon]

My school have just confused me with our prediction system. For instance, I got predicted up a grade in a couple of subjects purely because I was close, in one subject they messed up the mock and put in topics we hadn't covered, and lots of people got low scores. However, in philosophy I was on the level 7 border having consistently achieved this throughout the year, and I was told i'd be given benefit of the doubt but I've been predicted 6. Plus on my grade card I get given 5, even though all of my essays and classwork is literally consistently 6/7 border! Not good.

Plus I don't agree with the generic bonus point prediction system, because my school is above average in the grades it turns out they predict a generic 2 point as that's what most of us achieve - I get given no benefit of the doubt that I have a strong extended essay draft estimated at nearly an A, and already an A in my ToK Presentation!

[sachinkotecha]

Lol why are you complaining? Better than being given low predicted grades and then trying to apply to the UK, that is where the b.s starts. i had to fight to get predicted 34 even though i knew i was always going to beat it. luckily manchester offered me at 36 so it worked out somehow.