IA IA- Probability, Bayes Theorem vs Criteria E (Use of Mathematics)

[meowchelle]

Hello there,

 

So I've gone and done my IA on probability - only to find that my "use of mathematics" part is lacking. Atm my teacher is only willing to give me 13/20 (which is quite low since I'm aiming for a 7). My IA is on Prosecutor's Fallacy and solving that through Bayes' Theorem, and I guess it is rather simplistic because Bayes Theorem is HL (I'm SL) and to delve a lot further into the theorem is too complicated for me. 

 

I've just heard that probability IAs are infamous for lacking in Criteria E, which carries a lot of marks. At this point I'm quite sure I don't have the time to change my topic since I've got other IAs to do, so are there any ideas on how I can increase my Crit.E marks?

 

My IA basically goes:

-Overview of Prosecutor Fallacy

-Self-made example of how it works

-Application of Bayes Theorem into the Fallacy (simple overview with self-made example)

-Application of Bayes Theorem into a famous criminal trial 

 

The thing is, besides simple conditional probability and using the Bayes' formula to solve the fallacy, I didn't do much math, didn't prove the theorem or anything like that, and I'm at my wits' end on how to improve without going much too deep. 

 

Please advise, thank you

[SoniaNouri]

Hi, I'm currently in the exact same position as you are. I plan on doing the same topic and am very worried about Criteria E. Seeing as you wrote this IA in 2015, I was wondering what solution you came up with? I'm also in SL. 

- a struggling Ib student 

[mondira]

On 12/16/2019 at 10:16 AM, SoniaNouri said:

Hi, I'm currently in the exact same position as you are. I plan on doing the same topic and am very worried about Criteria E. Seeing as you wrote this IA in 2015, I was wondering what solution you came up with? I'm also in SL. 

- a struggling Ib student 

hey, i am at the same roadbump as you guys. What did you end up doing?