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Advice about which uni to firm and which to insure?

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So I am trying to decide which university I should choose as my insurance. I was thinking of firming Imperial (I am 99% I will) and insuring UCL. Imperial asks for 43 with 777 and UCL for 39 with 19 total at HL. I am hesitant about insuring UCL because I am scared of what might happen if everything goes completely wrong with finals. I don't think it's likely that I will write less than 37 in the finals (which with +2 would be a 39) or less than a 766 but if I get sick or something just goes completely wrong I am afraid I might miss it. My other options would be Southampton with a 37 and Bath with a 36 but wouldn't it be sort of unfair if I ended up going to them with a 42 or a 41 or even 43 with 776? I don't know what to do.

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