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I am starting my Internal Assessment and I have some topics in mind. I want to merge the Bayes' Theorem with the SIR model. My case study will be the HIV model of transmission and infection but I am wondering if there is any way to combine the idea of how accurate medial tests are in that country so that an infected individual with HIV would practice safe sex and no longer infect others because he knows of his condition. I could also pot this against some real world data. The problem is I do not know where in the SIR model woulda I link the Bayes Theorem or which variable would change. Also, does this seem plausible or even up to the standard of a math HL IA. Any help or comments would be HIGHLY HIGHLY appreciated.

P.S I am willing to communicate through Facebook or Gmail if it is to formal and inconvinient to discuss here.

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I would suggest that whenever you select any topics related to any model, you MUST have data available. I have seen that after learning about the topic, working on the topic, we do not have a good data source. Thus implementing the formula to real world data fails and the paper becomes merely a download of text from the internet,

Depending on the subjects at IB, you may select the topic that connects with other subjects. 

Eg. If you have taken Geography HL, you may select the topic like finding the distance between any two cities on the surface of earth.

This way, you will be able to prove the "personal engagement" in your IA.

Regards,

Chirag Shah

([email protected])

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1) I think the complexity of your IA may be EE worthy. That is, do an easier topic for the IA and write a math EE on SIR/Bayes'. I am only familiar with Bayes' theorem, but like @chirag2709 said, you need data! And it's hard to find the data. I tried to do a similar math EE on probability in medical diagnosis but I abandoned the topic completely. There are others who have done SIR as an IA or an EE so it's definitely possible! If you can't find data readily, then try a simulation.
2) I think the best bet would be to find textbooks on SIR or Bayes' and start reading. If the textbook is digital (Google Books) then you can try to search (CTRL F, or COMMAND F) for keywords. My second EE topic was put on hiatus until I found 3 equations inside this 1930s textbook, which instantly resolved all of my questions.
3) Another good idea is go through academic papers in SIR and Bayes' theorem. You may find some on sciencedirect.com and elsevier.com. If you have access to any university catalogue then it's a good idea to look at their database of math journals/periodicals.

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I worry that whatever I choose for my IA will be too simple and will not commensurate to the level expected of Math HL. I have tried to come up with ideas that are of interest to me but they have the same problems of too much complexity or no real life data to match it with. Do you have any ideas about a Math IA possibly linked to biology? I did a practice IA related tot he SIR model but I was wondering fi there was something else to do

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I have seen that we do not get the topics closely related to the subjects we like the most.

In that case, you may go for a general topic which can be easily related to everyone in day to day life.

Eg. Events related to Earth/eclipse/modelling sunrise and sunset etc.

You may also like to explore conic curves or Hyperbolic Geometry for Math HL.

 

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2 hours ago, Aunonna Kabir said:

I worry that whatever I choose for my IA will be too simple and will not commensurate to the level expected of Math HL. I have tried to come up with ideas that are of interest to me but they have the same problems of too much complexity or no real life data to match it with. Do you have any ideas about a Math IA possibly linked to biology? I did a practice IA related tot he SIR model but I was wondering fi there was something else to do

No I think that if you are able to connect Bayes' and SIR, it's going to at least at the level of HL. Like I've said I know many people on here have done SIR model. So if you talk about SIR and Bayes' then that should be enough. Also we can't give you ideas for IA here, as per IB rules.
The IA criteria "use of math" also needs cross-curricular references, such talking about both calculus and probability in one paper. 
Most of the IA topics I've seen are, modelling surface area/volume, number theory / Diophantine equations, combinatorics/probability, extensions on a popular math problem (such as Monty Hall or Birthday "Paradox").
So I say if you can make it work, your IA is fine. If you are concerned at all however, here is another comment I posted in which I went through my process of choosing an IA topic more in depth.

 

 

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