Conjectures and Proofs

[echin250]

Hey guys i'm a junior in Math SL and right now i'm working on my IA,

The rubric says that a conjecture is needed to get a 4 on the E criterion and a Proof is needed for a 5 in the E criterion, so in my ia i am studying the correlation between movie production budgets and its domestic gross. what i have done so far is collecting 100 pieces of data, finding the Pearson correlation coefficient value, regression line equation (with graphs) and predictions using the regression line equation (using a known movie budget to predict the future domestic gross). My problem revolves around if i were to do a conjecture with my prediction how would i show proof that it worked? would i compare the predicted result with a movie that has the same movie budget value in my data? and also for my proof is there any tips or advice on what i should do?

thank you!!

[kw0573]

The current Math SL syllabus last (at least) until November 2020 sessions. Here is a print screen of the *official* criterion E.

We have a mirror hosting under the Files section. The document is also available elsewhere on the web. 

Thus, the expectations of conjecture or proofs must be your teacher's own advice to you. If you want a 5 on criterion, you should make sure that it both demonstrates good knowledge of math, as well as explain something to the effect of a proof (since it will be your teacher directly grading your work). 

Whatever you do, you should clearly justify your steps (eg how significant is your correlation? What may be some underlying assumptions?) and although you might not need to prove anything, you should demonstrate enough knowledge of the formulas such that you are not blindly plugging in values. The Math Studies SL IA is primarily focused on correlation, so you should at the minimum beat their standards to score well in SL.