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IA: weather forecast — urgent need for help!

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Hi, two days later, I need to confirm my math IA topic.

I thought of measuring the accuracy of weather forecast. So I would be collecting data and use Bayes theorem (the probability to rain given it was forecasted, etc) as a means of checking the accuracy. Since my teacher said merely this might be basic, I thought of using Poisson distribution as well. I think I can use it in a way to see for how many days it offers the right forecast. But I was wondering if it sounds fine. Or do you recommend any other ways to improve this idea?

 

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